The results of the computations described in section 3.5, 3.5.1, 3.5.2 and 3.6 are presented in this chapter. This consists of calculation of the geographical area of each of the ten regions, applications of model 1 and 2 to each of ten regions of study in order to obtain the radiated energy per area per time. This is followed by the rating of seismic activities of the regions by the two models, which was the major objective of this work.
Table 4.1 presents the estimated geographical area of the ten regions of study using equation 3.25.
The values of the radiated energy per area per time obtained for regions 1 to 10 using model 1 are shown in tables 4.2 (i – x).
Table 4.3 shows the rating of seismic activities of the ten regions by model 1.
The values of the radiated energy per area per time for regions 1 to 10 using model 2 are shown in table 4.4 (i – x).
Table 4.5 shows the rating of seismic activities of the ten regions using model 2.
The values of Gutenberg–Richter‘s constants a and b for 5 years sub-periods for each of region 1 – 10 are shown in table 4.6 (i – x) .
Table 4.7 presents the rating of the seismic activities of the ten regions by the Gutenberg–Richter‘s method using the average values of constant a of each region.
Figures 4.1 (i-x) show the temporal variation of radiated energy per area for each of the ten regions for the fifty year period considered.
The discussion of these results is presented in section 4.2.
49
Table 4.1: Estimated Geographical Average Area coverage of the Regions Using Equation 3.25.
REGION AVERAGE AREA
COVERED (Km2 )
R1 774,912.10
R2 3,768,768.47
R3 3,207,703.96
R4 1,665,122.72
R5 2,202,775.31
R6 1,762,220.25
R7 2,301,149.14
R8 8,345,886.78
R9 4,513,027.49
R10 332,993.25
50
Table 4.2(i): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 1 Using Model 1
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
7.7 1956 - 1965
21345 0.00901608068 7.7 1966 - 1975
25672 0.00971711503 7.7 1976 - 1985
28412 0.01550064843 7.7 1986 - 1995
36082 0.01640939666 7.7 1996 - 2005
39715 0.01809058089 Average
Value 0.01374676434
51
Table 4.2(ii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 2 Using Model 1
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
37.6 1956 - 1965
18908 0.00074206734 37.6 1966 - 1975
20980 0.00079812279 37.6 1976 - 1985
21123 0.00089688715 37.6 1986 - 1995
22768 0.00090089111 37.6 1996 - 2005
26758 0.00090222576 Average
Value 0.00084803883
52
Table 4.2(iii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 3 Using Model 1
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
32.0 1956 - 1965
9243 0.00228785764 32.0 1966 - 1975
9578 0.00341688951 32.0 1976 - 1985
9789 0.00429502541 32.0 1986 - 1995
10008 0.00479054495 32.0 1996 - 2005
11113 0.00506809862 Average
Value 0.00397168322
53
Table 4.2(iv): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 4 Using Model 1
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
16.6 1956 - 1965
11145 0.00673638035 16.6 1966 - 1975
18799 0.00743116398 16.6 1976 - 1985
19996 0.00803532365 16.6 1986 - 1995
23456 0.00869989929 16.6 1996 - 2005
26234 0.00975717872 Average
Value 0.00813198920
54
Table 4.2(v): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 5 Using Model 1
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
22.0 1956 - 1965
12453 0.00510358452 22.0 1966 - 1975
18999 0.00520862474 22.0 1976 - 1985
22671 0.00735509877 22.0 1986 - 1995
25989 0.00741218584 22.0 1996 - 2005
28999 0.00744872157 Average
Value 0.00650564309
55
Table 4.2(vi): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 6 Using Model 1
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
17.6 1956 - 1965
14109 0.00364215540 17.6 1966 - 1975
16563 0.00629955875 17.6 1976 - 1985
19652 0.00669631392 17.6 1986 - 1995
28769 0.00959062863 17.6 1996 - 2005
29876 0.00963058958 Average
Value 0.00717184926
56
Table 4.2(vii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 7 Using Model 1
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
23.0 1956 - 1965
12075 0.00357607416 23.0 1966 - 1975
13720 0.00497721325 23.0 1976 - 1985
17111 0.00558706942 23.0 1986 - 1995
19331 0.00611823447 23.0 1996 - 2005
22001 0.00641114030 Average
Value 0.00533394632
57
Table 4.2(viii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 8 Using Model 1
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
83.4 1956 - 1965
15463 0.00147358218 83.4 1966 - 1975
18076 0.00181530859 83.4 1976 - 1985
20412 0.00194307932 83.4 1986 - 1995
22167 0.00260423255 83.4 1996 - 2005
23242 0.00300803625 Average
Value 0.00216884778
58
Table 4.2(ix): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 9 Using Model 1
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
45.1 1956 - 1965
18763 0.00132520132 45.1 1966 - 1975
22456 0.00144557285 45.1 1976 - 1985
25670 0.00270835931 45.1 1986 - 1995
27659 0.00275182680 45.1 1996 - 2005
28945 0.00298922620 Average
Value 0.00224403730
59
Table 4.2(x): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 10 Using Model 1
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
3.3 1956 - 1965
11895 0.02101162722 3.3 1966 - 1975
12754 0.03563366543 3.3 1976 - 1985
19867 0.03783905549 3.3 1986 - 1995
20986 0.04424374991 3.3 1996 - 2005
21456 0.04924364107 Average
Value 0.03759434782
60
Table 4.3: Showing Seismic Activity Rating of the Regions in descending order using Model 1
SEISMICITY RATING
ENERGY/AVERAGE AREA/TIME
year km J/ / 1013 2
REGION
10 0.0375 R10
9 0.0137 R1
8 0.0081 R4
7 0.0071 R6
6 0.0065 R5
5 0.0053 R7
4 0.0039 R3
3 0.0022 R9
2 0.0021 R8
1 0.0008 R2
61
Table 4.4(i): Showing the Seismic energy/Average area/Time for region 1 using Model 2
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
7.7 1956 –
1965
21345 5.21 0.85
0.430208083 0.043020808
7.7 1966 –
1975
25672 5.57 0.89
0.46127302 0.046127302
7.7 1976 –
1985
28412 6.51 1.05
0.718527543 0.071852754
7.7 1986 –
1995
36082 6.99 1.12
0.759000322 0.075900032
7.7 1996 –
2005
39715 6.72 1.04
0.775999697 0.07759997 Average
Value
6.20
0.99
0.629001733 0.062900173
62
Table 4.4(ii): Showing the Seismic energy/Average area/Time for region 2 using Model 2
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
37.6 1956 -
1965
18908 4.65 0.62
0.188873148 0.018887315
37.6 1966 -
1975
20980 4.9 0.63
0.200938733 0.020093873
37.6 1976 -
1985
21123 5.23 0.69
0.208543359 0.020854336
37.6 1986 -
1995
22768 5.16 0.62
0.216429852 0.021642985
37.6 1996 -
2005
26758 5.38 0.65
0.220214908 0.022021491 Average
Value
5.06
0.64
0.207 0.0207
63
Table 4.4(iii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 3 using Model 2
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
32.0 1956 – 1965
9243 2.85 0.37
0.179756988 0.017975699 32.0 1966 –
1975
9578 3.07 0.35
0.274247768 0.027424777 32.0 1976 –
1985
9789 3.44 0.4
0.327251025 0.032725102 32.0 1986 –
1995
10008 3.5 0.36
0.375147574 0.037514757 32.0 1996 –
2005
11113 3.98 0.43
0.418596645 0.041859664 Average
Value
3.37
0.38
0.315 0.0315
64
Table 4.4(iv): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 4 using Model 2
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
16.6
1956 - 1965
11145 3.8 0.62
0.5311 0.0531
16.6
1966 - 1975
18799 3.96 0.61
0.5893 0.0589
16.6
1976 - 1985
19996 4.36 0.66
0.5934 0.0593
16.6
1986 - 1995
23456 4.55 0.67
0.6396 0.064
16.6
1996 - 2005
26234 5.54 0.82
0.7516 0.0752
Average
Value
4.44
0.68
0.621 0.0621
65
Table 4.4(v): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 5 using Model 2
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
22.0 1956 - 1965
12453 3.73 0.46
0.392 0.0392
22.0 1966 - 1975
18999 4.75 0.64
0.4691 0.0469
22.0 1976 – 1985
22671 4.75 0.63
0.5363 0.0536
22.0 1986 - 1995
25989 4.74 0.62
0.5778 0.0578
22.0 1996 - 2005
28999 4.82 0.63
0.6047 0.0605
Average
Value
4.56
0.60
0.516 0.0516
66
Table 4.4(vi): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 6 using Model 2
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
17.6 1956 - 1965
14109 4.1 0.91
0.3489 0.0349
17.6 1966 - 1975
16563 4.31 0.93
0.4096 0.041
17.6 1976 - 1985
19652 4.51 0.92
0.486 0.0486
17.6 1986 - 1995
28769 4.72 0.92
0.7115 0.0712
17.6 1996 - 2005
29876 4.91 0.96
0.7389 0.0739
Average
Value 4.51
0.93
0.539 0.0539
67
Table 4.4(vii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 7 using Model 2
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
23.0 1956 - 1965
12075 1.93 0.33
0.3229 0.0323
23.0 1966 - 1975
13720 3.1 0.51
0.3775 0.0377
23.0 1976 - 1985
17111 3.98 0.65
0.4263 0.0426
23.0 1986 - 1995
19331 4.09 0.67
0.4629 0.0463
23.0 1996 - 2005
22001 4.52 0.76
0.4854 0.0485
Average
Value
3.52
0.58
0.415 0.0415
68
Table 4.4(viii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 8 using Model 2
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
83.4 1956 - 1965
15463 3.58 0.52
0.2145 0.0215
83.4 1966 - 1975
18076 3.91 0.53
0.258 0.0258
83.4 1976 - 1985
20412 4 0.53
0.2856 0.0286
83.4 1986 - 1995
22167 4.11 0.54
0.3627 0.0363
83.4 1996 - 2005
23242 4.13 0.53
0.3992 0.0399
Average
Value
3.95
0.53
0.304 0.0304
69
Table 4.4(ix): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 9 using Model 2
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
45.1 1956 - 1965
18763 5.21 0.85
0.2086 0.0209
45.1 1966 - 1975
22456 5.57 0.89
0.2237 0.0224
45.1 1976 - 1985
25670 6.51 1.05
0.3484 0.0348
45.1 1986 - 1995
27659 6.99 1.12
0.368 0.0368
45.1 1996 - 2005
28945 6.72 1.04
0.3763 0.0376
Average
Value
6.20
0.99
0.305 0.0305
70
Table 4.4(x): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 1 using Model 2
Average Area (
Period Total Number Of Events
A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2
Energy/Average Area/Time
year km J/ / 1013 2
3.3 1956 –
1965
11895 3.46 0.55
0.4676 0.0468
3.3 1966 –
1975
12754 3.48 0.55
0.7887 0.0789
3.3 1976 -
1985
19867 3.56 0.56
0.8389 0.0839
3.3 1986 -
1995
20986 4.07 0.66
0.9841 0.0984
3.3 1996 -
2005
21456 4.05 0.65
1.1007 0.1101
Average
Value
3.72
0.59
0.836 0.0836
71
Table 4.5: Showing Seismicity Activity Rating of The Regions in descending order using Model 2.
SEISMICITY RATING
ENERGY/AVERAGE AREA/TIME
year km J/ / 1013 2
REGION
10 0.0836 R10 (highest)
9 0.0629 R1
8 0.0621 R4
7 0.0539 R6
6 0.0516 R5
5 0.0415 R7
4 0.0315 R3
3 0.0305 R9
2 0.0304 R8
1 0.0207 R2 (least)
72
Table 4.6 (i): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 1.
Time Interval a b
1956 – 1966 5.21 0.85
1967 – 1976 5.57 0.89
1977 – 1986 6.51 1.05
1987 – 1996 6.99 1.12
1997 – 2006 6.72 1.04
Average Value 6.20 0.99
73
Table 4.6 (ii): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 2
Time Interval a b
1956 – 1966 4.65 0.62
1967 – 1976 4.9 0.63
1977 – 1986 5.23 0.69
1987 – 1996 5.16 0.62
1997 – 2006 5.38 0.65
Average Value 5.06 0.64
74
Table 4.6 (iii): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 3.
Time Interval a b
1956 - 1966 2.85 0.37
1967 – 1976 3.07 0.35
1977 – 1986 3.44 0.4
1987 – 1996 3.5 0.36
1997 – 2006 3.98 0.43
Average Value 3.37 0.38
75
Table 4.6 (iv): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 4.
Time Interval a b
1956 – 1966 3.8 0.62
1967 – 1976 3.96 0.61
1977 – 1986 4.36 0.66
1987 – 1996 4.55 0.67
1997 – 2006 5.54 0.82
Average Value 4.44 0.68
76
Table 4.6 (v): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 5.
Time Interval a b
1956 - 1966 3.73 0.46
1967 - 1976 4.75 0.64
1977 - 1986 4.75 0.63
1987 - 1996 4.74 0.62
1997 - 2006 4.82 0.63
Average Value 4.56 0.60
77
Table 4.6 (vi): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 6.
Time Interval a b
1956 – 1966 4.1 0.91
1967 – 1976 4.31 0.93
1977 – 1986 4.51 0.92
1987 – 1996 4.72 0.92
1997 – 2006 4.91 0.96
Average Value 4.51 0.93
78
Table 4.6 (vii): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 7.
Time Interval a b
1956 – 1966 1.93 0.33
1967 - 1976 3.1 0.51
1977 - 1986 3.98 0.65
1987 - 1996 4.09 0.67
1997 - 2006 4.52 0.76
Average Value 3.52 0.58
79
Table 4.6 (viii): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 8.
Time Interval a b
1956 - 1966 3.58 0.52
1967 - 1976 3.91 0.53
1977 - 1986 4 0.53
1987 - 1996 4.11 0.54
1997 - 2006 4.13 0.53
Average Value 3.95 0.53
80
Table 4.6 (ix): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 9.
Time Interval a b
1956 - 1966 5.21 0.85
1967 - 1976 5.57 0.89
1977 - 1986 6.51 1.05
1987 - 1996 6.99 1.12
1997 - 2006 6.72 1.04
Average Value 6.20 0.99
81
Table 4.6 (x): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 10.
Time Interval a b
1956 - 1966 3.46 0.55
1967 - 1976 3.48 0.55
1977 - 1986 3.56 0.56
1987 - 1996 4.07 0.66
1997 - 2006 4.05 0.65
Average Value 3.72 0.59
82
Table 4.7: Seismic Activity Rating of The Regions Using Gutenberg-Richer Constant a.
SEISMIC