• No results found

The results of the computations described in section 3.5, 3.5.1, 3.5.2 and 3.6 are presented in this chapter. This consists of calculation of the geographical area of each of the ten regions, applications of model 1 and 2 to each of ten regions of study in order to obtain the radiated energy per area per time. This is followed by the rating of seismic activities of the regions by the two models, which was the major objective of this work.

Table 4.1 presents the estimated geographical area of the ten regions of study using equation 3.25.

The values of the radiated energy per area per time obtained for regions 1 to 10 using model 1 are shown in tables 4.2 (i – x).

Table 4.3 shows the rating of seismic activities of the ten regions by model 1.

The values of the radiated energy per area per time for regions 1 to 10 using model 2 are shown in table 4.4 (i – x).

Table 4.5 shows the rating of seismic activities of the ten regions using model 2.

The values of Gutenberg–Richter‘s constants a and b for 5 years sub-periods for each of region 1 – 10 are shown in table 4.6 (i – x) .

Table 4.7 presents the rating of the seismic activities of the ten regions by the Gutenberg–Richter‘s method using the average values of constant a of each region.

Figures 4.1 (i-x) show the temporal variation of radiated energy per area for each of the ten regions for the fifty year period considered.

The discussion of these results is presented in section 4.2.

49

Table 4.1: Estimated Geographical Average Area coverage of the Regions Using Equation 3.25.

REGION AVERAGE AREA

COVERED (Km2 )

R1 774,912.10

R2 3,768,768.47

R3 3,207,703.96

R4 1,665,122.72

R5 2,202,775.31

R6 1,762,220.25

R7 2,301,149.14

R8 8,345,886.78

R9 4,513,027.49

R10 332,993.25

50

Table 4.2(i): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 1 Using Model 1

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

7.7 1956 - 1965

21345 0.00901608068 7.7 1966 - 1975

25672 0.00971711503 7.7 1976 - 1985

28412 0.01550064843 7.7 1986 - 1995

36082 0.01640939666 7.7 1996 - 2005

39715 0.01809058089 Average

Value 0.01374676434

51

Table 4.2(ii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 2 Using Model 1

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

37.6 1956 - 1965

18908 0.00074206734 37.6 1966 - 1975

20980 0.00079812279 37.6 1976 - 1985

21123 0.00089688715 37.6 1986 - 1995

22768 0.00090089111 37.6 1996 - 2005

26758 0.00090222576 Average

Value 0.00084803883

52

Table 4.2(iii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 3 Using Model 1

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

32.0 1956 - 1965

9243 0.00228785764 32.0 1966 - 1975

9578 0.00341688951 32.0 1976 - 1985

9789 0.00429502541 32.0 1986 - 1995

10008 0.00479054495 32.0 1996 - 2005

11113 0.00506809862 Average

Value 0.00397168322

53

Table 4.2(iv): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 4 Using Model 1

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

16.6 1956 - 1965

11145 0.00673638035 16.6 1966 - 1975

18799 0.00743116398 16.6 1976 - 1985

19996 0.00803532365 16.6 1986 - 1995

23456 0.00869989929 16.6 1996 - 2005

26234 0.00975717872 Average

Value 0.00813198920

54

Table 4.2(v): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 5 Using Model 1

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

22.0 1956 - 1965

12453 0.00510358452 22.0 1966 - 1975

18999 0.00520862474 22.0 1976 - 1985

22671 0.00735509877 22.0 1986 - 1995

25989 0.00741218584 22.0 1996 - 2005

28999 0.00744872157 Average

Value 0.00650564309

55

Table 4.2(vi): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 6 Using Model 1

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

17.6 1956 - 1965

14109 0.00364215540 17.6 1966 - 1975

16563 0.00629955875 17.6 1976 - 1985

19652 0.00669631392 17.6 1986 - 1995

28769 0.00959062863 17.6 1996 - 2005

29876 0.00963058958 Average

Value 0.00717184926

56

Table 4.2(vii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 7 Using Model 1

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

23.0 1956 - 1965

12075 0.00357607416 23.0 1966 - 1975

13720 0.00497721325 23.0 1976 - 1985

17111 0.00558706942 23.0 1986 - 1995

19331 0.00611823447 23.0 1996 - 2005

22001 0.00641114030 Average

Value 0.00533394632

57

Table 4.2(viii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 8 Using Model 1

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

83.4 1956 - 1965

15463 0.00147358218 83.4 1966 - 1975

18076 0.00181530859 83.4 1976 - 1985

20412 0.00194307932 83.4 1986 - 1995

22167 0.00260423255 83.4 1996 - 2005

23242 0.00300803625 Average

Value 0.00216884778

58

Table 4.2(ix): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 9 Using Model 1

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

45.1 1956 - 1965

18763 0.00132520132 45.1 1966 - 1975

22456 0.00144557285 45.1 1976 - 1985

25670 0.00270835931 45.1 1986 - 1995

27659 0.00275182680 45.1 1996 - 2005

28945 0.00298922620 Average

Value 0.00224403730

59

Table 4.2(x): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 10 Using Model 1

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

3.3 1956 - 1965

11895 0.02101162722 3.3 1966 - 1975

12754 0.03563366543 3.3 1976 - 1985

19867 0.03783905549 3.3 1986 - 1995

20986 0.04424374991 3.3 1996 - 2005

21456 0.04924364107 Average

Value 0.03759434782

60

Table 4.3: Showing Seismic Activity Rating of the Regions in descending order using Model 1

SEISMICITY RATING

ENERGY/AVERAGE AREA/TIME

year km J/ / 1013 2

REGION

10 0.0375 R10

9 0.0137 R1

8 0.0081 R4

7 0.0071 R6

6 0.0065 R5

5 0.0053 R7

4 0.0039 R3

3 0.0022 R9

2 0.0021 R8

1 0.0008 R2

61

Table 4.4(i): Showing the Seismic energy/Average area/Time for region 1 using Model 2

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

7.7 1956 –

1965

21345 5.21 0.85

0.430208083 0.043020808

7.7 1966 –

1975

25672 5.57 0.89

0.46127302 0.046127302

7.7 1976 –

1985

28412 6.51 1.05

0.718527543 0.071852754

7.7 1986 –

1995

36082 6.99 1.12

0.759000322 0.075900032

7.7 1996 –

2005

39715 6.72 1.04

0.775999697 0.07759997 Average

Value

6.20

0.99

0.629001733 0.062900173

62

Table 4.4(ii): Showing the Seismic energy/Average area/Time for region 2 using Model 2

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

37.6 1956 -

1965

18908 4.65 0.62

0.188873148 0.018887315

37.6 1966 -

1975

20980 4.9 0.63

0.200938733 0.020093873

37.6 1976 -

1985

21123 5.23 0.69

0.208543359 0.020854336

37.6 1986 -

1995

22768 5.16 0.62

0.216429852 0.021642985

37.6 1996 -

2005

26758 5.38 0.65

0.220214908 0.022021491 Average

Value

5.06

0.64

0.207 0.0207

63

Table 4.4(iii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 3 using Model 2

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

32.0 1956 – 1965

9243 2.85 0.37

0.179756988 0.017975699 32.0 1966 –

1975

9578 3.07 0.35

0.274247768 0.027424777 32.0 1976 –

1985

9789 3.44 0.4

0.327251025 0.032725102 32.0 1986 –

1995

10008 3.5 0.36

0.375147574 0.037514757 32.0 1996 –

2005

11113 3.98 0.43

0.418596645 0.041859664 Average

Value

3.37

0.38

0.315 0.0315

64

Table 4.4(iv): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 4 using Model 2

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

16.6

1956 - 1965

11145 3.8 0.62

0.5311 0.0531

16.6

1966 - 1975

18799 3.96 0.61

0.5893 0.0589

16.6

1976 - 1985

19996 4.36 0.66

0.5934 0.0593

16.6

1986 - 1995

23456 4.55 0.67

0.6396 0.064

16.6

1996 - 2005

26234 5.54 0.82

0.7516 0.0752

Average

Value

4.44

0.68

0.621 0.0621

65

Table 4.4(v): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 5 using Model 2

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

22.0 1956 - 1965

12453 3.73 0.46

0.392 0.0392

22.0 1966 - 1975

18999 4.75 0.64

0.4691 0.0469

22.0 1976 – 1985

22671 4.75 0.63

0.5363 0.0536

22.0 1986 - 1995

25989 4.74 0.62

0.5778 0.0578

22.0 1996 - 2005

28999 4.82 0.63

0.6047 0.0605

Average

Value

4.56

0.60

0.516 0.0516

66

Table 4.4(vi): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 6 using Model 2

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

17.6 1956 - 1965

14109 4.1 0.91

0.3489 0.0349

17.6 1966 - 1975

16563 4.31 0.93

0.4096 0.041

17.6 1976 - 1985

19652 4.51 0.92

0.486 0.0486

17.6 1986 - 1995

28769 4.72 0.92

0.7115 0.0712

17.6 1996 - 2005

29876 4.91 0.96

0.7389 0.0739

Average

Value 4.51

0.93

0.539 0.0539

67

Table 4.4(vii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 7 using Model 2

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

23.0 1956 - 1965

12075 1.93 0.33

0.3229 0.0323

23.0 1966 - 1975

13720 3.1 0.51

0.3775 0.0377

23.0 1976 - 1985

17111 3.98 0.65

0.4263 0.0426

23.0 1986 - 1995

19331 4.09 0.67

0.4629 0.0463

23.0 1996 - 2005

22001 4.52 0.76

0.4854 0.0485

Average

Value

3.52

0.58

0.415 0.0415

68

Table 4.4(viii): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 8 using Model 2

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

83.4 1956 - 1965

15463 3.58 0.52

0.2145 0.0215

83.4 1966 - 1975

18076 3.91 0.53

0.258 0.0258

83.4 1976 - 1985

20412 4 0.53

0.2856 0.0286

83.4 1986 - 1995

22167 4.11 0.54

0.3627 0.0363

83.4 1996 - 2005

23242 4.13 0.53

0.3992 0.0399

Average

Value

3.95

0.53

0.304 0.0304

69

Table 4.4(ix): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 9 using Model 2

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

45.1 1956 - 1965

18763 5.21 0.85

0.2086 0.0209

45.1 1966 - 1975

22456 5.57 0.89

0.2237 0.0224

45.1 1976 - 1985

25670 6.51 1.05

0.3484 0.0348

45.1 1986 - 1995

27659 6.99 1.12

0.368 0.0368

45.1 1996 - 2005

28945 6.72 1.04

0.3763 0.0376

Average

Value

6.20

0.99

0.305 0.0305

70

Table 4.4(x): Showing The Seismic Energy/Average Area/Time for Region 1 using Model 2

Average Area (

Period Total Number Of Events

A B Energy/Average Area 1013J/km2

Energy/Average Area/Time

year km J/ / 1013 2

3.3 1956 –

1965

11895 3.46 0.55

0.4676 0.0468

3.3 1966 –

1975

12754 3.48 0.55

0.7887 0.0789

3.3 1976 -

1985

19867 3.56 0.56

0.8389 0.0839

3.3 1986 -

1995

20986 4.07 0.66

0.9841 0.0984

3.3 1996 -

2005

21456 4.05 0.65

1.1007 0.1101

Average

Value

3.72

0.59

0.836 0.0836

71

Table 4.5: Showing Seismicity Activity Rating of The Regions in descending order using Model 2.

SEISMICITY RATING

ENERGY/AVERAGE AREA/TIME

year km J/ / 1013 2

REGION

10 0.0836 R10 (highest)

9 0.0629 R1

8 0.0621 R4

7 0.0539 R6

6 0.0516 R5

5 0.0415 R7

4 0.0315 R3

3 0.0305 R9

2 0.0304 R8

1 0.0207 R2 (least)

72

Table 4.6 (i): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 1.

Time Interval a b

1956 – 1966 5.21 0.85

1967 – 1976 5.57 0.89

1977 – 1986 6.51 1.05

1987 – 1996 6.99 1.12

1997 – 2006 6.72 1.04

Average Value 6.20 0.99

73

Table 4.6 (ii): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 2

Time Interval a b

1956 – 1966 4.65 0.62

1967 – 1976 4.9 0.63

1977 – 1986 5.23 0.69

1987 – 1996 5.16 0.62

1997 – 2006 5.38 0.65

Average Value 5.06 0.64

74

Table 4.6 (iii): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 3.

Time Interval a b

1956 - 1966 2.85 0.37

1967 – 1976 3.07 0.35

1977 – 1986 3.44 0.4

1987 – 1996 3.5 0.36

1997 – 2006 3.98 0.43

Average Value 3.37 0.38

75

Table 4.6 (iv): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 4.

Time Interval a b

1956 – 1966 3.8 0.62

1967 – 1976 3.96 0.61

1977 – 1986 4.36 0.66

1987 – 1996 4.55 0.67

1997 – 2006 5.54 0.82

Average Value 4.44 0.68

76

Table 4.6 (v): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 5.

Time Interval a b

1956 - 1966 3.73 0.46

1967 - 1976 4.75 0.64

1977 - 1986 4.75 0.63

1987 - 1996 4.74 0.62

1997 - 2006 4.82 0.63

Average Value 4.56 0.60

77

Table 4.6 (vi): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 6.

Time Interval a b

1956 – 1966 4.1 0.91

1967 – 1976 4.31 0.93

1977 – 1986 4.51 0.92

1987 – 1996 4.72 0.92

1997 – 2006 4.91 0.96

Average Value 4.51 0.93

78

Table 4.6 (vii): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 7.

Time Interval a b

1956 – 1966 1.93 0.33

1967 - 1976 3.1 0.51

1977 - 1986 3.98 0.65

1987 - 1996 4.09 0.67

1997 - 2006 4.52 0.76

Average Value 3.52 0.58

79

Table 4.6 (viii): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 8.

Time Interval a b

1956 - 1966 3.58 0.52

1967 - 1976 3.91 0.53

1977 - 1986 4 0.53

1987 - 1996 4.11 0.54

1997 - 2006 4.13 0.53

Average Value 3.95 0.53

80

Table 4.6 (ix): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 9.

Time Interval a b

1956 - 1966 5.21 0.85

1967 - 1976 5.57 0.89

1977 - 1986 6.51 1.05

1987 - 1996 6.99 1.12

1997 - 2006 6.72 1.04

Average Value 6.20 0.99

81

Table 4.6 (x): Estimated G-R Constants for Region 10.

Time Interval a b

1956 - 1966 3.46 0.55

1967 - 1976 3.48 0.55

1977 - 1986 3.56 0.56

1987 - 1996 4.07 0.66

1997 - 2006 4.05 0.65

Average Value 3.72 0.59

82

Table 4.7: Seismic Activity Rating of The Regions Using Gutenberg-Richer Constant a.

SEISMIC