standard tons of coal
1.5. WORLD ENERGY PROSPECTS
There has been a worsening outlook for oil. During the past two decades world oil consumption has grown twice as fast as that of all other energy sources combined. Two-thirds of the growth in energy consumption in the member countries of the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) came from oil during this time.
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In Western Europe and Japan, oil has provided over 80' percent of this increase in energy use. In all but a few of the
developing countries oil has also supplied virtually all of the increase in energy consumption. It is a matter of considerable concern therefore that there now appears to be no realistic prospect of oil meeting any substantial part of future increases in the world's energy needs.
The present international oil trade amounts to about 35 million barrels a day (mbd), which is about 55 percent of the world's total oil consumption. Of that amount about 80 percent
is exported by the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC). There are no secure grounds for assuming that OPEC
production of oil will increase in the future, and there are good reasons to fear it may be less. Moreover, key producers like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have adopted policies that will conserve oil in the ground as a better security for their future than income they cannot spend or usefully invest. It is now the declared policy of OPEC member countries to limit oil production to amounts that will total nor more than the present level of about 30 million barrels a day. This policy is directed toward optimizing rather than maximizing revenues.
The goal is to generate only as much revenue as their
economies can handle without causing too rapid social change and high inflation. Increasing prices while holding production stable, or even reducing it, meets this financial objective and at the same time conserves oil resources.
Prospects for increased oil supplies from non-OPEC
areas are not sufficiently encouraging to change this picture.
Production from fields in the North sea and Alaska's Prudhoe Bay in USA are projected to peak and level off in the next few years. It appears that Mexico and Norway will continue to limit oil exports to meet revenue needs. Increases in the production of oil in the People's Republic of China and the developing countries will be largely used to meet growing domestic demand. Furthermore, some experts have suggested that production in the Soviet Union, which now exports 1 million barrels a day to countries outside Eastern Europe,
is levelling off, and that the Soviet Union/Eastern Europe area is therefore unlikely to remain self-sufficient in oil.
For all these reasons, it is believed that oil will provide, at most, a small fraction of any future increase in world energy needs.
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The world must find ways other than oil to provide the additional energy required for its future economic growth.
Natural gas and liquefied natural gas (NLG) have found wide use in many industrialised countries, such as the United States and Western Europe. Inports of gas by pipeline as liquefied natural gas (LNG) are significant in some countries and may increase. The rate of increase is however, likely to be slow because of long lead times and the large capital investment required for under-sea pipelines, liquefaction, transport, and regasification facilities. Furthermore, since it is OPEC member countries that are in possession of natural gas for export, there is high probability that ceiling production levels might be
instructed to raise prices like is now the case for oil.
A vast resource base exists in several countries for unconventional oil in the form of oil shale, tar sands and heavy oil, like for example, Canada produces about 7 percent of its oil from Alberta tar sand deposits. Coal beds, shales, tight sands, and geo-presurrized formations may also contain huge amounts of unconventional gas. A substantial expansion of unconventional oil or gas production is now being planned for some countries.
However, all these unconventional sources are characterized by high capital costs and long lead times for development, all which slow down rate of development.
Nuclear power, which already plays a substantial role in electricity generation in some countries, like in some regions of the United States and Europe where it
provides about 30 percent of the total electricity, has several uncertainties. Within very recent times the nuclear
explosion and/or leakage in Long Island and Chenobil in the United States and the Soviet Union respectively have heightened fears of insecurity in the use and storage of nuclear power.
Until public confidence is restored, it is difficult to make reliable predictions about the future contribution that nuclear power will make.
Aggressive conservation programs now occupy a central place in the energy strategies of many nations. The
achievement of substantial savings, however, tends to be gradual, even with government intervention in the form of tax and financial incentives, as well as regulations governing energy performance standards of buildings and equipments. Relatively short term resources like good
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housekeeping, better insulation and improved heating conditions achieve 10-15 percent of energy savings. To achieve energy savings in the long term huge capital investments and long lead times are involved. Replacement of a country's
industrial equipment stock may take from 20 to 30 years, for an example.
Hydroelectricity is presently the only renewable
energy source that makes a substantial contribution to global energy needs. It can be expected to continue to provide about 5 percent of the world's energy need.
Geothermal sources provide useful quantities of energy in some areas today and additional sources are being discovered and developed. The total contribution from geothermal sources will nevertheless inevitably remain geographically limited and relatively small in relation to world energy requirements.
Conversion of Biomass to fuel alcohol is also under way in some countries, and it is already making a useful
contribution to transport fuel requirements in Brazil.
Solar energy has probably the greatest long-term
potential of the renewable resources but its rate of expnasion will be limited by the time required for new technologies to become economic and then penetrate energy markets.
Solar collectors for water heating, and in some cases for space heating, are already commercially available. About 2 percent or a little more, of the world's primary energy consumption could be supplied by the year 2000. Solar generation of electricity, whether by thermal methods or by photo-voltaics, is yet in its developmental infancy and so may require two to three more decades before it would make a strong impact in the world energy scene.
From the foregoing, it is to be noted that there is bright prospects for coal. The dwindling prospects for any substantial increase in the supply of oil at acceptable prices constitute the main reason for the increased importance of coal.
Even with the most optimistic forecasts for the expansion of nuclear power and the aggressive development of all other energy sources, as well as vigorous conservation, it is clear that coal has a vitally important part to play in the world's energy future. The world's coal production in 1977 was about 3,400 million metric tons of raw coal. This was a contribution of about 2,500 million metric tons of coal equivalent (mtce) or 33 mbdoe, already greater than any energy source except oil.
Coal use has been projected to increase substantially from 1977 to 2000 A.D with almost a doubling or tripling increase.
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